Food inflation looks like it’s on the way down, but it will probably take a while for prices in supermarkets to start coming back down, according to observers in agriculture and retail.
The United Nations’ Food Price Index dropped in November, according to data released Dec. 2. It was the eighth straight month of decline, after a spike that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It reflected drops in the prices of grains, edible oils and other commodities.
The CEO of Kroger told analysts that he expects food inflation to fall, but that there will be a lag until Kroger shoppers start to see lower prices. He said that inflation is already starting to slow with fresh food like meat and produce, but that with packaged food, some processors prefer raising prices to trying to sell more units.
Food inflation is still raging at the retail level, with prices hitting an all-time high in October. Experts say that lower commodity prices normally take three to six months to filter through to retail, and that uncertainty about supplies of grains and other necessities make it even harder to pass along lower prices.
