Market research firm Circana (formerly IRI) on Aug. 28 confirmed its earlier forecast for this year, predicting modest growth in topline sales and stronger prospects for the year ahead. The firm also acknowledges this year’s healthy decrease in inflation.
In November 2023, Circana forecasted that 2024 would signal a return to growth for the retail food & beverage sector after three years of volume decline. The projected volume increase of 1.0% that Circana projected back then was above historical norms but followed a 1.0% drop in 2023.
The firm also foresaw an historically low-price increase of 1.6% for this year, down from 5.7% in 2023 and 11.4% in 2022. As a result, top-line growth was expected to slow to 2.3%, compared to 4.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2022, Circana said.
As of mid-2024, Circana’s projections have proven highly accurate, with the food & beverage industry showing volume growth of 0.8%, a price increase of 1.4% and top-line growth of 2.2%, all closely aligning with the November 2023 forecast.
“Following several years of economic volatility, we’re now seeing signs of stabilization across various sectors, including food and beverage,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor at Circana.
“While we anticipated greater support from an improving economy, the shift from away-from-home to in-home consumption helped keep our projections on track,” she continued. “Manufacturers will need to strategically assess how to stimulate demand and drive profitable growth.”
Despite ongoing concerns about pricing, bifurcation in food & beverage purchases continues — some consumers are trading up to premium-priced products and super-premium items, while others are opting for private brands.
Circana says as consumers increasingly value “just-in-time” convenience and quality in their food choices, they are making smaller, more frequent trips and favoring quick-prep options from produce, refrigerated and deli departments. The frozen and refrigerated segments have outperformed initial expectations, with refrigerated trailing only produce as a leading department in volume growth year-to-date 2024. On the other hand, the seafood and liquor segments have experienced volume declines.
Lyons Wyatt added, “As we approach the end of 2024, we anticipate the year will close out near our mid-year projections. We expect volume growth will ease to 0.5-1.0%, with some potential softening later in the year as fast food ‘price wars’ could impact retail F&B growth, assuming current economic conditions hold. Year-over-year price realization is projected to increase slightly to 1.5-2.0%, driven by slowing promotional investments and the introduction of new price increases. This will result in overall top-line growth of 2.2-2.7% for 2024.”
Looking at other geographic regions, Circana expects 2024 retail food & beverage growth in both the Europe, Middle East and Africa region and Asia Pacific to outpace that of the U.S. in terms of top-line growth, with both regions projected to achieve 4.0-5.0% growth. In APAC, this growth is anticipated to be entirely price-driven, with flat unit sales. In EMEA, the strength in top-line growth is primarily due to increased price realization, with volume growth comparable to U.S. levels.
Looking ahead to 2025, Circana projects a slight uptick in top-line dollar growth, expected to be between 2.5-3.5%, driven primarily by increased price realization between 2.0-3.0%, while volume growth is anticipated to moderate between 0-1.0%.
