Forget all those stories we did last year about cocoa replacements. The price of chocolate’s key ingredient is plummeting to its lowest level in 2.5 years.

The price of cocoa at mid-day today (Feb. 16) was $3,500 per tonne – that’s a far cry from the $12,000 cost in April and December of 2024, and within the $2,000-3,500 per metric tonne range that was common for decades. After a gradual wind-down, the price ended 2025 at about $6,000 per tonne.

Beginning in 2023, cocoa prices began a climb that was caused by severe crop failures, particularly in West Africa, brought on by diseases and rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns, probably caused by climate change. Also contributing were rising growing costs relating to fertilizers, labor and transportation.

The first hint that was over came last June when the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) projected a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024-2025 season, the first surplus in four years, according to IFCMarkets. ICCO also predicted a 7.8% increase in global cocoa production for this season to 4.84 million MT, which is coming true and adding downward pressure on prices.

Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, reported a 27% year-over-year jump in January exports to 46,970 tonnes. Shipments from Ivory Coast — the world's largest cocoa bean producer, accounting for more than over 40% of global production — are up 17% year over year.

Plus, after suffering through the record prices for two years, chocolate manufacturers like Hershey, Mondelez and Mars took whatever steps they could to mitigate prices, including reformulating some products and ultimately raising prices, which buoyed their dollar sales but lowered volume and therefore demand.