The Consumer Brands Assn. created a report listing "Five Trends Emerging from COVID-19 That Will Redefine the Industry." It was based in part on an Ipsos poll as well as input from CBA subject matter experts.
One of those trends is that consumer packaged goods (CPG) sales will "decelerate" but remain strong this year, at least in comparison to 2019. Last year was a tough act to follow: From March 2020 through February 2021, both in-store and online CPG sales rose 14% compared to the previous 12-month period, according to data from measurement firm NCSolutions and quoted in AdWeek.
From that benchmark, CBA estimates sales this year will decrease 1-2%. "Still, the anticipated annual rate of purchases is predicted to be between 7.4% and 8.5% above 2019, the last 'normal' year on record," the association wrote. "Despite the vaccine, Americans will still consume more at home."
The five trends:
1. Product Demand: Americans' slow emergence from pandemic life will keep CPG demand elevated long after the vaccine is widely accessible.
2. Supply Chain: Supply chain concerns will fade from consumers' view as shelves stay stocked but will still drive big changes in CPG operations.
3. Recycling: There will be new urgency to fix the broken recycling system after the consequences of an increase in plastic usage and waste during COVID-19 are realized.
4. Transparency: Transparency demands will accelerate on consumer expectations, government requirements and new digital fluency after a year of virtual living.
5. Social Change: The trust in companies that grew during COVID-19 will evolve into businesses assuming the role of societal change agents and forces for good.
The consumer survey asked "Will you stay stocked up on the following?" after the pandemic. Disinfecting wipes and toilet paper topped the list, garnering 46% of responses each. Shelf-stable food was next at 45% and frozen food was sixth at 37% (right behind hand sanitizers and paper towels).
"There will not ... be a return to what was considered normal in February 2020," the association wrote. "America has been fundamentally changed by the pandemic and 'normal' will be redefined by the experience. The question for the CPG industry is how this redefined normal will translate to its business and the consumers it serves."
CBA, which represents the biggest branded/packaged food & beverage processors as well as makers of other grocery store products (cleaning products, cosmetics, toilet paper, etc.).
