According to a recent report from Mintel (Red Meat, September 2013), dollar sales of red meat have been trending upward since 2008, growing 9 percent from 2008 to 2013 to reach $53.1 billion. But Mintel says escalating prices are moving the needle more than consumer interest and that “inflation-adjusted prices show a stagnant market.”
Moving forward, the market is expected to continue to be challenged by consumers turning away from red meat for what is perceived to be healthier and less-expensive alternatives. Category sales between 2013 and 2018 should grow 3 percent at current prices, reaching $54.7 billion in total sales. But they will contract 8 percent in inflation-adjusted terms over the same period.
So where will those protein-craving folks turn? Well, Butterball may be on to something. Mintel’s November 2013 Poultry Report indicates that poultry grew by more than 7 percent in 2013 after two years of minimal growth that was brought about by – you guessed it – high prices.
Mintel predicts the category will reach sales of nearly $40 billion in 2018, an increase of 22 percent from 2013-2018. “Future sales growth is likely to be fueled by healthy eating trends as the American obesity epidemic continues to play a major role in consumer food selection,” the reports note.
Jenkins says ground turkey or turkey cuts make an easy replacement for beef or can work in combination. Either way, cost savings and a better nutritional label can be part of the result.
“Foodservice is probably catching up with retail when it comes to ground turkey,” Jenkins says. “Home cooks have used it in gravies and spaghetti sauces and casseroles for some time, and now we are seeing that in restaurants. Certainly there are meatloaf blends that include both turkey and beef.”
Grinding techniques and meat selection also contribute to the ability of turkey to emulate beef, he says.
Whether it’s a chain of restaurants or a frozen food manufacturer sourcing meat for a menu item, cost must be considered, but cost advantages do not last forever, Jenkins says. “The cost benefit analysis is always part of the equation,” he says. “There is a risk (in putting too much emphasis on cost). Our cost is driven by the price of grain, and there are no secrets about that.”