Add olive oil to the list of commodities threatened by climate change.
Spain, the world’s top exporter of olive oil, said that high temperatures and drought will take a toll on the next harvest. According to an analyst quoted by The Guardian, Spain’s current crop could yield as much as 30% below last year’s. There may also be a lower proportion of olives fit for virgin-grade oils.
Refined olive oil prices in southern Spain are already up 8.3% in June year-over-year. Also pushing prices upward is the effect of the war in Ukraine, which has strangled exports of sunflower seeds and oil, with a cascading effect on the prices of other edible oils.
The situation in Spain is mirrored in Italy, where drought is expected to lead to a drop in olive oil production of 20% to 30%.